The Dew Cup Race Heats Up in Portland
Aug 19 2007 / Portland, OR
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In the first two years of the Dew Tour, the athlete in the lead for the Dew Cup after the Vans Invitational has gone on to win the Dew Cup 10 out of 12 times.
So where does the race stand in Portland? Who has the edge? Here's a breakdown by sport of the race for the Dew Cup.
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SKATE PARKRyan Sheckler dominated the first two tour stops of the Dew Tour and seemed unstoppable going into the Vans Invitational. However, Greg Lutzka, the second-place finisher in Baltimore's Panasonic Open, had different ideas and took the win with the closest finish in Dew Tour history in a Skate Park final. With Rodolfo Ramos, who was second in the Dew Cup race, finishing out of the top six, the Dew Cup race tightens up to be a true two-man race going into the final two events. Sheckler now has 275 points to Lutzka's 218.
To Win
Ryan Sheckler needs to do two things to hold on to his lead and win his third straight Dew Cup. One, he needs to stay healthy and show up and both events. Two, he needs finish in second or first in both events and Lutzka needs to win both events outright. Mathematically, there are some other possible scenarios that can give Lutzka a win, but given Sheckler's track record, the only way Lutzka can hope to do it is by winning out and then hope for the best.
Odds Are
Sheckler has #3 in his sights. Even if Sheckler stumbles, he's just too far ahead.
BMX VERTLike Ryan Sheckler, Jamie Bestwick has dominated his discipline in the first two years of the Dew Tour, easily winning the Dew Cup in '05 and '06. So far, 2007 looks like more of the same, though he is not completely in the clear yet. With his win Friday in BMX Dirt at the Vans Invitational, Bestwick leads the Dew Cup race with 243 points. However, because of his 7th place finish at the Right Guard Open, second-place rider Simon Tabron is only 30 points behind him with 213 points, thanks to a win and second-place finish. Chad Kagy was the only other person able to make a difference and an injury at X Games knocked him out of the competition.
To Win
Jamie Bestwick has been in this situation before -- in the first two years of the Dew Tour he lost one contest early and went on to win out -- so he knows what to do. Tabron has to hope for at least one more Right Guard Open -- that is, for another win and another Bestwick meltdown (placing 7th or worse). And then, to keep it going he still needs to finish at least second if Bestwick wins one of the events.
Odds Are
The Right Guard Open was an aberration for several reasons -- don't ever expect that to happen again. He's won it.
BMX DIRTRyan Nyquist had a strong start to the Dew Tour, winning the first two tour stops but more importantly for his Dew Cup hopes, no one seemed to be consistent besides him. And that held in the third event, the Vans Invitational, where Nyquist was the only rider to place in the top five across all three events (he placed fifth Friday in the BMX Dirt finals). All that inconsistency actually gives Nyquist a pretty comfortable 92-point lead in the Dew Cup race over second-place riders Cameron White and Corey Bohan, tied with 157 points. Bohan was hobbled by an 11th-place finish on Friday while White failed to even make the finals. Close behind is Dennis Enarson, who won on Friday.
To Win
Last year Ryan Nyquist battled injury and still found himself in the race for one Dew Cup in BMX Park. Now he has a healthy lead in BMX Dirt and the only way he can lose it is to completely fall down the stretch. If White, Bohan or Enarson can put together successive wins and find Nyquist out of the top five, they have a chance. But can one person dominate the last two events like Nyquist did at the beginning and also see Nyquist stay out of the picture? Not likely.
Odds Are
Ryan Nyquist could win his first Dew Cup ever and be the third different person to win the Dew Cup in Dirt.
BMX PARKWhile Nyquist has a healthy lead in BMX Dirt, he's not so lucky in BMX Park, where he is a distant third to Daniel Dhers, who won the first two events but lost the third. Nyquist and his 173 trail Dhers' 263 points and Mike Spinner's 208. Spinner did win the Vans Invitational on Saturday by throwing down a huge 1080 but it's possible that Dhers only ended up in third because he fell trying to keep up -- a rare occurrence, indeed, for the Venezuelan. The loss shows Dhers is definitely beatable, but it's not easy (and Spinner can't land the 1080 every time). Making things a little tough, too, has been the format changes -- each stop has had a different format for scoring.
To Win
Spinner has a window but it's pretty small. He has to win both remaining events and Dhers can't finish worse than second in each stop. That's a tall order. It's truly a two-man race at this point.
Odds Are
Dhers still has a nice hold on first because it's unlikely he will fall out of the top three in any single competition. But after suffering a couple of falls in Portland, injury could be an issue. Still, he arguably could have won the stop in Portland with his first run, not counting the second run where he fell. Dhers still looks like the Dew Cup champ but Spinner may be the 2008 champ.
SKATE VERTFor the first two years of the Dew Tour, Bucky Lasek has ended up as Dew Cup champ after tough battles that lasted all season. Lasek won the titles thanks to consistency. Well, Shaun White has been consistently great the first three events and after ditching the Dew Tour halfway through the season in '05 and '06, he is here 100% in 2007. His 300 points are followed by Bob Burnquist with 201 and Lasek with 168. No one seems to have a realistic chance of catching up.
To Win
Really all Shaun White has to do to keep his lead is show up. The only chance Burnquist has is to win the final two events and for White to finish worse than fourth each time. And given the fact that Pierre-Luc Gagnon is in the picture, Burnquist winning two is pretty much impossible. Still, injuries or karma can come into the picture at any time, so nothing is guaranteed (especially with him going to Chile for some snowboarding). Still, at 30-years-old Burnquist is more prone to injury than 20-year-old White -- even if he snowboards and skates.
Odds Are
Shaun White is unstoppable this year. Look for him him to hold the Dew Cup to the sky in October.
FMXThe freestyle motocross guys are tough. But they get injured, and that's what happened with Blake Williams, the number two finisher in the first event. Since he's out of the running, the two wins by Nate Adams to start the season are that much more important. Adams has a nice 82 point lead going into Sunday's finals with Mike Mason in second with 118. Adams broke a finger a few weeks ago and it hurt his performance (possibly) at X Games so he could slip a bit. But there are a lot of guys who could step up in addition to Mason.
To Win
Adams needs to stay healthy and stay in the top three. Even if he comes in second or third for the last three events to Mason, Adams will win. That should make him feel comfortable.
Odds Are
Adams will repeat as Dew Cup champ. Who will finish second is the real puzzler.
- Greg Baerg
